What this stage does
Score each program's probability of technical, regulatory, and launch success — the number that decides fund-or-kill and where portfolio investment goes next.
Where AI applies
Base-rate assembly from historical precedent, decomposition of the estimate into visible priors, and scorekeeping that tracks forecast accuracy over time.
Under the Hood · 5
5 capability-angle deep-dives generalizing this essay's pattern for AI and software engineers.
The reasons a project feels exceptional are rarely the reasons that matter to its odds.
A probability of success with no seams can't be argued with. Split it into factors and the argument becomes possible.
Editing the prompt until the model agrees with you produces your own opinion wearing a neutrality badge.
A forecast that hasn't changed in years isn't stable. Nobody is checking it against what actually happened.
Teams that rate probabilities for a living almost never check whether their 60% calls come true 60% of the time.