What this stage does
Pick countries balancing patient availability, regulatory timelines, standard of care, and cost.
Where AI applies
Multi-criteria ranking with transparent weightings, and scenario analysis over regulatory and epidemiology signals.
Under the Hood · 5
5 capability-angle deep-dives generalizing this essay's pattern for AI and software engineers.
Same protocol text, different experiment: standard of care makes the control arm a moving target.
Speed, poolability, and launch value don't share a unit. Collapsing them into one score hides the real decision.
An unstated assumption is a landmine. Write it as a claim you can prove wrong, then check it while there's still time to act.
An optimizer will find every path to its reward, including the ones you didn't want it to take.
Forecast dependencies you don't control from their history, not from optimism.